22 de febrero de 2010

Antecedentes:

1. CAP e INVERCAP son sociedades anónimas abiertas.

2. El 10 de febrero de 2010 CAP anuncia que su Directorio aprobó la oferta de Mitsubishi (MCI), que describe equivalente a US$ 924 mm para asociarse en su filial minera CMP con un 25% de su capital, y señala que citará a Junta Extraordinaria de Accionistas para “ratificar esta operación” para el 10 de marzo próximo. Mitsubishi es tenedora de un 19.3% del capital de CAP, un 2.31% de INVERCAP y del 50% de Compañía Minera Huasco (CMH) – el otro 50% es de CMP -.

17 de febrero 2010

A solicitud de la Superintendencia de Valores y Seguros, CAP S.A. (CAP) hizo públicas ayer las características generales del Pacto de Accionistas que se suscribiría entre esta sociedad y MC Inversiones Limitada (MCI), relacionada al grupo Mitsubishi, a celebrarse sobre la filial minera de CAP, Compañía Minera del Pacífico S.A. (CMP). La anterior subscripción del Pacto de Accionistas estaría relacionada con un aumento de capital en CMP por parte de MCI, bajo un proceso de negociaciones entre personas jurídicas relacionadas que no ha estado abierto a terceros.

Santiago, 12 de febrero 2010

Sr. Guillermo Larraín Ríos
Superintendente de Valores y Seguros
Presente

Referencia: Operación CAP / Mitsubishi

Estimado Señor Superintendente,

A raíz de la reciente aprobación por parte del Directorio de CAP S.A. de la operación propuesta por M.C. Inversiones Limitada (MCI) para pasar a ser accionista de Compañía Minera del Pacífico S.A. (CMP), agradecería que la institución dirigida por Ud. aclarara algunas dudas que surgen respecto de ésta. En aras de una mayor transparencia, le aclaro que no tengo acciones de CAP S.A. ni de INVERCAP S.A. y que mi interés está en que el mercado de capitales opere lo más eficientemente posible y que el Orden Público Económico sea respetado.

February 10th, 2010

Codelco, the state copper mining company, has a controversial history in Chile. The company was born out of an outright expropriation of foreign mining companies that gradually took place between 1966 and 1971, with minimal compensation paid to its owners. Later on, newly implemented market reforms would not consider returning its assets to their previous owners. The company was to remain in state hands, so much so as to even ratify this goal in the Constitution itself. Privatization proposals have risen from time to time but ideological opposition and, no less important, some past questionable privatization experiences, have plotted against it. What one could try to do then is to transform Codelco into a dividend paying firm to every living Chilean, after paying a specific 40% tax rate on its net revenues and keeping 10% of them for investment purposes. In so doing, money would start going back directly to the People, without intermediaries, and no constitutional restriction would be violated.

29 de diciembre de 2009

La administración de CAP hasta ahora ha rechazado la competencia de terceros distintos a Mitsubishi – que tiene sobre un 19% de su capital - para invertir en la matriz de sus yacimientos mineros, CMP. De hecho, se ha seguido avanzando en un proceso de negociación exclusivo que apunta, según lo informado por la Sociedad, a que Mitsubishi acceda al 25% del capital de CMP mediante el aporte de su 50% de participación en CMH y de recursos frescos por acordar. Aún más, se ha publicado en la prensa la eventual negociación de un pacto de accionistas en CMP entre Mitsubishi y CAP.

10 de diciembre 2009

Señor Director:

Las palabras del presidente de CAP, Roberto de Andraca, reproducidas por Diario Financiero el 7 de diciembre, confirman el peor escenario posible para CAP en esta etapa de negociaciones con uno de sus más importantes socios: que se niegue de antemano a una licitación competitiva por el aumento de capital de CMP. O es Mitsubishi, sin competencia de terceros, o no hay transacción alguna. Los anunciados y todavía no conocidos estudios de terceros sobre CMP (Compañía Minera del Pacífico, matriz minera de CAP) y CMH (Compañía Minera de Huasco, dueña y explotadora del yacimiento de hierro Los Colorados) pueden orientar dicho proceso de negociaciones, pero son de muy poco valor si no están refrendados por precios que nacen de un proceso competitivo especialmente diseñado para la mejor explotación del gran activo de CAP, su potencial minero. Una CAP con recursos competitivamente generados podrá soberanamente decidir si le conviene o no recomprar el 50% de CMH de propiedad de Mitsubishi y desarrollar de manera independiente sus otros proyectos mineros. Condicionar la primera transacción de aumento de capital en CMP a esta segunda de compra del 50% de CMH, sin mediar la saludable presión competitiva de terceros, probablemente no va en el interés de CAP, al colocar restricciones artificialmente innecesarias a su objetivo final de maximizar su valor económico.

November 6th, 2009

In 2003 US forces, mostly allied with British ones, toppled Saddam Hussein’s government. Five years later, the “surge” strategy gradually enabled an internal pacification process that has been under way ever since, allowing institutions to reasonably work again and awaken its economic apparatus. Six years later, Iraq is finalizing agreements with foreign firms to increase its oil production from 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) to 7 million bpd. World oil production in 2008 almost reached 82 million bpd. The oil production increase from Iraq will represent an important 5.5% world oil supply shock for a dormant market. Under these new production levels, Iraq will be the third biggest oil producer after Saudi Arabia (10.8 million bpd) and Russia (9.8 million bpd).

October 8th, 2009   

Chile has two great ice masses in its southern Patagonian territory that give birth to important rivers and lakes: Campo de Hielo Norte and Campo de Hielo Sur. The first one has an area close to 4.200 square km; the second one, an area close to 13.900 square km. The first one is entirely Chilean, the second one borders on its eastern side with the Argentinian lakes Viedma and Argentino. This approximate 160 km boundary, which goes from Mount Fitz Roy to Mount Stokes, was agreed upon by both countries in September 1898 (1), 111 years ago, and was later confirmed - and again accepted by both Chile and Argentina - in November 1902, almost 107 years ago, by His Majesty King Edward VII Arbitral Award in the Argentine – Chile Boundary Case, with an specific map and precise mountain tops included. In 1998 Chile and Argentina agreed to work on a yet more precise boundary on this same borderline (2). The problem is that this redefinition could imply for Chile the loss of approximately 2.000 square km. The only solution to this situation, if no new agreement is reached, is to go back to the 1902 Arbitral Award. Neither the executive nor the legislative powers do have the authority to accept territory loses, unless explicitly authorized by the Chilean people having been duly informed about such an essential national decision.

September 10th, 2009   

One month ago, the administration of CAP, a Chilean steel and iron producer with a US$ 3.6 billion market value, announced the beginning of negotiations with Mitsubishi Corporation to enable this last one to invest in its closely held mining subsidiary CMP. It so happens that the Japanese company already has a 19.3% stake in CAP and owns 50% of the 6 million ton iron ore mine CMH – the other half belongs to CMP -. CMP has the capacity to annually produce 11 million tons of iron, of which 8 million tons correspond to CAP’s share. CMP has mineral resources to increase its production to over 25 million tons of iron per year.

1 de septiembre 2009

Estimado señor Director, 

Una manera constructiva de solucionar la controvertida colocalización de las antenas es separar su aspecto competitivo de su correspondiente pago, sin condicionar uno al otro sino que vaya cada uno por vías paralelas. Para asegurar lo primero, se podría obligar desde ahora a los tenedores de antenas a permitir la entrada de terceros operadores, sujetándose sólo a aspectos técnicos y ambientales. Para determinar lo segundo, se podría exigir que las partes envueltas pidan y ofrezcan un precio por el acceso, quedando la decisión final entregada a un tercero árbitro que elegiría sólo una u otra postura, desincentivando así posiciones extremas.

12 de agosto 2009

Presentación Comisión de Hacienda Cámara de Diputados

1. Obligar a los bancos a desprenderse de las sociedades de apoyo, tal cual ocurrió antes con Endesa que tuvo que hacerlo con Transelec, centrándolos en su negocio esencial: captar y colocar platas. Los casos de Mis Cuentas con la CCA – Servipag y la larga negociación que tuvo el Banco Estado con su red de cajeros para acceder al sistema propio de los bancos deberían constituirse en buenos antecedentes de cómo estas sociedades de apoyo se han utilizado para frenar la competencia. Lo mismo ocurre con Transbank en sus controversias con las tiendas por departamento por el uso de tarjetas. Todas estas sociedades deberían tarificar sus servicios a costo marginal, y por definición sin discriminaciones frente a las contrapartes.

6 de agosto 2009 

Señor Director,

Los precios de venta de la energía eléctrica por parte de los generadores se están consolidando alrededor de los US$ 90 por MWh, incluyendo energía y potencia, bajo los precios de los combustibles actuales. En Estados Unidos dichos precios están hoy cercanos a los US$ 40 por MWh y han fluctuado históricamente entre US$ 50 y 65 por MWh. En el primer caso, la justificación está en el “costo de desarrollo del sistema”; en el segundo caso, en un mercado competitivo.

July 10th, 2009

A huge crisis has fallen over this industry for the last twelve months. In 2008 it exported US$ 2.47 billion and almost 445.000 net tons of fish. Half of them – in tonnage - were based on the Atlantic salmon; the other half, on the trout and Pacific salmon. The first ones were gravely affected by the ISA virus and farming was then stop until its causes were eradicated or better controlled. However, the industry appeared to be heavily indebted[1]: its total debt was thought to be close to US$ 2.4 billion including banks, suppliers and other financial intermediaries. This debt, unless the industry creates the incentives to receive fresh resources to restart its most valuable Atlantic salmon production again, will not be worth its par value. In other words, the problem will not lie on the economics of this industry as an ongoing concern but on the excessive financial leverage and lack of new equity, after having had losses that could have compromised between a quarter and a half of its fish stock, or US$ 400 to US$ 800 million.

June 24th, 2009

Average US retail residential prices of electricity, including taxes, have been for the last 12 months to March 2009 US$ 11.58 cents per KWh, whereas in Chile that figure has been around US$ 20 cents or over. Since 1960 and in real terms, US retail residential prices have averaged US$ 11.5 cents per KWh and moved between US$ 10 and 13 cents, approximately. US wholesale prices paid to electric power producers have been moving close to half those figures[1]. In the Chilean case, if nothing relevant is done soon, we are doomed to face electricity prices at the power generation level and for the next 15 years one third more expensive than these long term historic prices. The negative impact and relative disadvantage over our whole economic system is obvious. That excess return unnecessarily paid by consumers – close to US$ 1.600 million per year - in favor of consolidated electric energy producers should not take place and is not even needed to have electricity investments, for they just need a normal return to be justified.

June 4th, 2009

World economic growth has always been accompanied by short term cycles along its trend. Structural changes – as those we have seen for the last 20 years associated with the entry into the world market economy of a late half of it - mostly affect the first; monetary policies, transitory price shocks or baseless panics, the second ones. As of now, expansive monetary measures taken by the Federal Reserve and then the ECB will guarantee the “shortness” of the recent episode and the return to a natural long term growth path.

15 de Mayo de 2009

Señor Director:

El límite entre Chile y Argentina en la zona de Campos de Hielo fue fijado definitivamente el año 1902, bajo el Laudo Arbitral de Su Majestad Británica Eduardo VII. La laguna del Desierto, del tamaño de la ciudad de Santiago y ubicada a los pies del monte Fitz Roy, quedó entonces bajo la soberanía chilena. Incomprensiblemente, ese territorio se perdió en un posterior y cuestionado arbitraje en el año 1994 en lo que resultó ser una verdadera afrenta para el país.

May 11th, 2009

The unanimous declaration of the thirteen United States of America, dated July 4th, 1776 has some remarkable elements that continue being applicable to our present times. At the beginning of it, it says: “We hold these truths to be self evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed.

28 de abril de 2009

Señores Lectores,

A raíz de la columna fechada el 28 de abril de 2009 publicada en el Diario Financiero  ¨Precios de Electricidad en Chile y USA¨ del señor Carlos Abogabir Ovalle, gerente de asuntos corporativos de Colbún SA, entidad que participó en el cuestionado proceso de licitaciones eléctricas del SIC, creo que es útil aportar lo siguiente:

April 23rd, 2009     

CAP is a steel and iron Chilean producing company, born out of 1980’s privatizations, that is on the verge of change. Or at least it should be. Its present controlling stake, a convenient agreement between former and present employees and a mine fond investor that holds over one third of the company, goes back to those times. It was later reinforced by the entry of Mitsubishi, the Japanese group, into the property of one of the main iron mines in the 1990’s with a 50% stake along with a direct investment in the equity of the company that today reaches over 19%.

7 de abril de 2009

Señor Director,

En el caso de colusión en las farmacias, pareciera que se da más importancia a lo que rodea al acuerdo de conciliación de la Fiscalía Nacional Económica con Farmacias Ahumada que al problema de fondo: la destrucción gradual del sistema económico que nos rige por prácticas anticompetitivas. Estas sí deberían extirparse y sancionarse, para lo cual tenemos una activa Fiscalía y un Tribunal especializado en estas materias que han recolocado a la competencia en su justa dimensión. La confesión y conciliación, si bien procesalmente importantes, son accesorias a lo central.

April 3rd, 2009

Some time from now this period will be known in the US as the Great Scare. It will be recognized as a frightening one where an unjustified panic temporarily shut down the economy, specially the financial world, ending with real loses in jobs and wealth creation and giving birth to a huge wealth redistribution from those that had to sell to those that timely invested before the mirage was over. Most possibly, the one actor that will be appreciated is the Federal Reserve with its decisive expansive monetary policy after the credit flow started to freeze. The villains will be over leveraged financial institutions whose bets went wrong and politicians cum economists that almost begged for the arrival of the 1929 Depression, as if it were a case study or a medium to reach power.

9 de marzo 2009

Una reciente licitación de suministro eléctrico por parte de las mayores distribuidoras del país arrojó sorpresivamente un valor fijo promedio de US$ 104 por MWh, indexado al IPC americano, para períodos que van entre 12 y 15 años. Las generadoras que ofrecieron dicho suministro de 7.110 GWh anuales, representativo de un 13% del consumo total chileno, son básicamente las cuatro principales del país. El precio ofrecido para generar dicha energía no va a cambiar en función del costo de los insumos - petróleo, carbón, gas natural u otros -, salvo por la variación del IPC americano, como sí ocurre en las licitaciones anteriores. La importancia de dicho valor está en que refleja por primera vez y de manera explícita las expectativas de los generadores. Sin embargo, su impacto económico hay que verlo en conjunto con el resto de los contratos que comienzan su aplicación a partir del año 2010.

2 de Marzo 2009

Señor Director,

Se acaba de informar que el producto de Estados Unidos cayó 6,2% real anual el cuarto trimestre de 2008. Obviamente una desalentadora cifra. Lo que no se explica es que ésta es sólo una estimación del crecimiento anual si se mantuviera el ritmo de crecimiento de este particular trimestre. En rigor, el producto cayó un 0,8% real el cuarto trimestre de 2008 en relación con el cuarto trimestre de 2007. Aún más, Estados Unidos creció un 1,1% real el año pasado en relación con el anterior. ¿Sorpresa?

February 24th, 2009

A recent visit by our President to Cuba has reminded many of our past century history and the position we stand on now as a country.  The visit itself and what it tried to show in terms of some political proximity belongs to our past, held by a minority - then and now - that is nowadays considered part of our unique folklore. Likewise, the ensuing Bolivian maritime aspiration through Chilean territory as detailed by old unrepentant Fidel just exposes once again the oddity of the pretension and the lack of seriousness of its beneficiaries with such a speaker in chief. Still, misunderstanding mainstream Chile could lead to wrong conclusions.

15 de Febrero 2009

Señor Director,

Recientemente se dio a conocer el resultado de una licitación de suministro eléctrico que representa alrededor del 13% del consumo actual de electricidad del país, para plazos entre 12 y 15 años. El precio promedio fue de aproximadamente US$ 104 por MWh, reajustable por el IPC de Estados Unidos. Como referencia, en los últimos 25 años el precio real promedio comparable fue cercano a los US$ 45 por MWh. Si bien este último valor está influido por el otrora precio subsidiado del gas natural desde Argentina, la diferencia es demasiado sustancial como para pasar inadvertida, aún cuando se proyectase a futuro un mundo nuevamente en fuerte crecimiento.

6 de Febrero 2009 

El año 2006 la Superintendencia de Bancos e Instituciones Financieras (SBIF) lo calificó como el ¨año del cliente bancario¨. En dicho ejercicio, la tasa nominal anualizada de las colocaciones bancarias de consumo había promediado, antes de impuestos y gastos asociados al crédito, un 34,6% de interés, implicando de esa manera un spread cercano al 25% respecto del costo de fondos de los bancos, en vez de un más competitivo 10% para ese tipo de créditos. Adicionalmente, se entregó una tabla comparativa de Rentabilidad sobre el Patrimonio de los bancos para el período 2001 a 2006 en que la banca chilena lideraba con un 17,1% sobre América Latina (15,5%), Asia (14,9%), Europa Oriental (14,8%), Estados Unidos (13,5%) y Europa Emergente (12,5%). Una banca doméstica consolidada, ciertamente, pero obtenida sacrificando la competencia del crédito, en especial la de aquellos sectores sin alternativas. El reflejo de un mercado donde sus actores no desafían a sus pares, en que el crecimiento básico ha sido hecho por la vía de adquisiciones que minimizan alterar las condiciones de operación de este imperfecto mercado. Un mercado ¨ordenado¨, con la anuencia de la autoridad.

Time and again you keep saying that the Federal Reserve flooded the market with dollars in the 2000´s and that there would lie the most important reason for its depreciation. If I may reprint, in your last editorial article you state the following:

December 9th, 2008

Technological changes do happen, turning past production functions obsolete. Sometimes there is a certain gradualism that enables economic agents and institutions to adjust; sometimes, time is too short for it. The present economic and financial circumstances seem to be of the second case; the first one would be better depicted by the early weakening influence it had on the Ottoman Empire the discovery of America and alternative sea trade routes to the East that made it an owner of an asset – a virtual logistic monopoly in east west trade - no longer unique: a written and hopeless destiny to become a reality sooner or later.

November 11th, 2008

There are two soft spots in our financial system that need to be addressed: one is the dependency of the banking industry on domestic pension funds for long term financing resources; the other, the undercapitalized life insurance industry that pays two thirds of domestic pensions under an annuity structure. Both of these situations could be in the process of being fixed, at last.

October 17th, 2008

Here is what Joe knows: he has been paying on average US$ 110 per barrel of oil for the first 9 months of this year, or 66% more than last year’s average price of US$ 66 per barrel. Moreover, he has been paying three times more than long term average prices of oil of US$ 35 per barrel – in today’s dollars – since 1946. He also understands that in the long term, when there is enough technological flexibility to use any source of energy, whether it be oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear power or hydroelectricity or any other renewable marginal one, energy prices move in tandem. And to his own merit, he does not expect the oil and gas cartel to defend his consumer interests; to the contrary, he is a bystander witness that no one has dared until now to confront obvious anticompetitive practices in this crucial economic sector.

October 14th, 2008

Dear Sir,

Has it occurred to you that the present crisis is no crisis after all, once you extinguish this unreasonable panic among financial actors? It turns out that even though the US economy is decelerating, it still grows whether a recession is called for or not, and general liquidity has not been permanently impaired and will not be, if we are to believe Fed Chairman Bernanke and his firm monetary decision.

September 24th, 2008

It is not easy to ascertain the depth of the present financial crisis, to differentiate real economic costs from accounting practices that link asset values to markets where prices are no longer reliable, to get to the essence of the problem out of too many distracting figures. But some illustrative facts could contain useful information to understand it:

13 de septiembre 2008.

Estimado Señor Director,

Todos estamos de acuerdo en que la inflación es dañina para la economía, y cuando ésta se sale de rangos aceptables, aunque sea temporalmente, sobran las recomendaciones. Aquí le envío entonces una más, antes que continúe la escalada alcista en la tasa de interés de corto plazo por parte del Banco Central.

July 31st, 2008

Our present energy crisis has awoken Chile: as of year 2006, domestic energy production –essentially hydroelectricity - represented 24% of total domestic energy consumption, another 24% - natural gas - was supplied from Argentina, a neighboring country, and the rest – 52%- came from multiple foreign coal and oil producers. In that same year, this country consumed 27.9 million tones oil equivalent (mtoe), or less than 0.3% of world primary energy consumption which reached 10,878 mtoe[1]. One year later, natural gas flows coming from Argentina were reduced to a minimum level because of their purely domestic and self created market disruption: the government arbitrarily fixed natural gas prices too low,   thereby causing underinvestment, less supply and overconsumption (surprising?). For Chile, the real problem was not that of rising prices – besides stating the obvious that cheaper energy was better for a net importing energy country -, but one of reliability.

July 23rd , 2008

Dear Sir,

Congratulations for your article and the effort to keep vigilant on this kind of inefficient and costly business behavior from a private and also social viewpoint. The big question is what could be recommended to do now.

What if these GSE´s were already economically bankrupt? Then the issue from a public policy perspective would be who could in the short and long term horizon replace their role -if any efficiency market condition required it- in the mortgage and financial market.

June 4th, 2008

There has been an obvious loss of momentum in our economic growth, relative to our own past two decades and the rest of the emerging world. In figures, whereas in the 90’s and 2000’s Chile had an average annual growth rate of 6,37% and 4,34% respectively, the emerging and developing economies had equivalent growth rates of 3,24% and 6,34% for the same periods (IMF World Economic Outlook Database 2008 *). In other words, inverse GDP growth rates paths.

March 6th, 2008

According to 2007 BP Statistical Review, 2006 world energy consumption amounted to 10.878 million tons oil equivalent – mtoe -, of which 36% corresponded to oil, 24% to natural gas, 28% to coal , 6% to nuclear energy and 6% to hydroelectricity, excluding solar, wind and other minor energy sources. The first two sources, which tend to appear jointly and explain 60% of world energy consumption, have markets directly and explicitly influenced by the OPEC cartel and a newly born one known as Gas Exporting Countries Forum. Unsurprisingly, there is no recognizable world energy consumption cartel.

22 de febrero 2008

Estimado Señor Director,

A raíz del acuerdo entre Chile y Argentina de 1998 para precisar el recorrido del límite desde el monte Fitz Roy hasta el cerro Daudet, una distancia aproximada de 160 kms, ¿ pierde territorio nuestro país respecto del hasta ahora válido límite definido por el Laudo Arbitral de Su Majestad Británica de 1902, con todas sus imperfecciones ?

December 14th, 2007

Some useful lessons are going to be acknowledged after the present financial volatility period settles, particularly in the US. The most important one will be the divergence between the real economy and the perceived one, the dissociation between short and long term equilibrium values and Wall Street.